Journal


November 22, 2009

We are now beginning to obtain some results from the past Strong Buy postings. In the Archives, the results are placed right after the post. There is a summary on the front page.

November 1, 2009

In October, the S P 500 was down for the first time in seven months, but that is traditional since September and October are the down months for the stock market. We have made it to November and by historical data, November to May is the best time to be long in the market. If this year is an exception, remember what Warren Buffet said: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful."

October 1, 2009

There are no Strong Buys in Mining for October. However, we have noticed that many of the metal processors still meet the criteria of a Strong Buy, so we have added "Metals" to the mining concentration.

August 10, 2009

Teck (TCK) and Gulfport (GPOR) have reached the target price. We have sold all we had and we suggest you do the same. TCK was first posted as a Strong Buy on April 2, 2009 at $6.16 and it is now at $25.43. These are still great companies, but they no longer meet the Strong Buy criteria.

August 10, 2009

It is getting more and more difficult to find Strong Buys in the Mining Concentration. Taseko (TGB) is the only one left that is clearly a Strong Buy. Anglo American (AAUPY) is in a reorganization and changing stock exchanges and the normal evaluation data is not available. We added CDII, which we do believe will double in price, but it gets only about 40% of its revenue from magnesium mining.

We will be adding a Financial Concentration in September to give us more stocks to evaluate.

July 30, 2009

The market has had a nice rally. We should not have to be concerned about a downturn for a while.

July 10, 2009

The market is now at S P 500 877 and is on its way to four weeks of downturn. The 100 day moving average will cross at 860. That is only 17 away. If we reach 860 or lower we will post our method for trading a down market.


5-1-2009

The market is now at S P 500 872 and it seems like some type of recovery is starting. It is also a good time to watch for any sign of a downturn. We use the 100 day moving average of the S P 500 as a signal to quit buying. That crossover right now is at 840. We will post any significant changes.


3-9-09

New Low point. S P 500 676

3-5-09

New Low point. S P 500 682

3-3-09

New Low point. S P 500 696

3-2-09

New Low point. S P 500 700

2-27-09

New Low point. S P 500 735

2009 Archives of Past Strong Buys

Strong Buys

Posted December 1, 2009

Oil

Name Ticker Price Target
China N E Petro NEP 5.20 12.00
VAALCO EGY 4.19 7.00
CVR Engery CVI 7.33 11.00

Mining and Metals

Sutor SUTR 2.35 5.00
General Steel GSI 4.01 8.00
China Gengsheng CHGS 1.94 3.50

Shipping

TOP Ships TOPS 1.07 5.00
Navios Maritime NM 5.78 11.00
Safe Bulkers SB 8.51 16.00
Danaos DAC 4.40 12.00
Dryships DRYS 6.12 9.50

Financials

China Housing CHLN 4.37 6.00
KKR Financial KFN 5.54 14.00
Kohlberg Capital KCAP 4.80 8.50

Strong Buys

Posted November 1, 2009

Oil

Name Ticker Price Target
Clayton Williams CWEI 26.20 46.00
VAALCO EGY 4.26 6.00
Double Eagle DBLE 4.73 7.00

Mining and Metals

Sutor SUTR 2.89 6.00
General Steel GSI 3.72 5.00
Highveld HGVLY 8.05 20.00

Shipping

TOP Ships TOPS .97 5.00
Navios Maritime NM 4.57 11.00
Safe Bulkers SB 6.96 16.00
Danaos DAC 4.09 11.00
Paragon PRGN 4.08 7.00

Financials

China Housing CHLN 3.08 7.00
AmTrust Financial AFSI 11.28 22.00
Kohlberg Capital KCAP 5.3110.00

Strong Buys

Posted October 1, 2009

Oil

Name Ticker Price Target
Clayton Williams CWEI 30.12 46.00
TransGlobe TGA 3.57 5.00
Western Refining WNR 6.45 9.00
Double Eagle DBLE 4.78 7.00

Mining and Metals

Sutor SUTR 3.16 6.50
General Steel GSI 3.89 6.00
Highveld HGVLY 9.85 20.00

Shipping

TOP Ships TOPS 1.23 5.00
Navios Maritime NM 4.91 11.00
Safe Bulkers SB 8.12 16.00
Danaos DAC 5.04 11.00
Paragon PRGN 4.24 7.00

Financials

China Housing CHLN 3.85 7.00
AmTrust Financial AFSI 11.41 22.00
Allianz AZ 12.48 16.00

Strong Buys

Posted September 1, 2009

Oil

Name Ticker Price Target
Harvest Energy HTE 5.67 11.00
Western Refining WNR 6.07 9.00
Double Eagle DBLE 4.29 7.00

Mining

Anglo American AAUKY 16.19 32.00
Taseko Mines TGB 2.42 5.00
China Direct CDII 1.56 4.00

Shipping

Navios Maritime NM 4.53 11.00
Safe Bulkers SB 7.33 17.00
Danaos DAC 3.75 12.00
Paragon PRGN 3.89 9.00

Financials

China Housing CHLN 4.02 8.00
Oriental Financial OFG 13.54 29.00
Allianz AZ 11.55 15.00

Strong Buys

Posted August 4, 2009

Oil

Name Ticker Price Target
Gran Tierra GTE 3.85 6.00
CVR Energy CVI 7.33 14.00
Harvest Energy HTE 5.95 11.00
Western Refining WNR 6.71 14.00
Double Eagle DBLE 4.01 7.00

Mining

Anglo American AAUKY 16.48 29.00
Taseko Mines TGB 2.30 5.00
China Direct CDII 1.99 4.00

Shipping

DryShips DRYS 6.60 15.00
Navios Maritime NM 5.05 11.00
Safe Bulkers SB 8.58 16.00
Danaos DAC 3.91 11.00
Paragon PRGN 4.73 11.00
Horizon HRZ 5.11 8.00

Strong Buys

Posted July 1, 2009

Oil

Name Ticker Price Target
Gran Tierra GTE 3.45 6.00
CVR Energy CVI 7.33 14.00
Harvest Energy HTE 5.44 11.00
Western Refining WNR 7.06 14.00

Mining

Anglo American AAUK 14.63 29.00
Taseko Mines TGB 1.71 4.00
Teck Resources TCK 15.94 22.00

Shipping

DryShips DRYS 5.78 15.00
Navios Maritime NM 4.23 11.00
Safe Bulkers SB 6.56 18.00
Danaos DAC 3.24 15.00
Paragon PRGN 3.64 12.00
Horizon HRZ 3.86 8.00

Strong Buys

Posted June 1, 2009

Oil

Name Ticker Price Target
Gran Tierra GTE 3.04 6.00
CVR Energy CVI 9.56 14.00
Harvest Energy HTE 6.43 10.00

Mining

Anglo American AAUK 14.35 58.00
Taseko Mines TGB 1.73 4.00
Teck Resources TCK 15.83 20.00

Shipping

DryShips DRYS 8.19 16.00
Navios Maritime NM 5.49 11.00
Safe Bulkers SB 7.50 16.00
Danaos DAC 4.12 15.00

Strong Buys

Posted 5/1/2009

Oil

Name Ticker Price Target
Gran Tierra GTE 2.48 9.00
Precision Drilling PDS 4.71 12.00
Gulfport Energy GPOR 2.97 6.00

Mining

Anglo American AAUK 10.77 57.00
Taseko Mines TGB 1.42 7.00
Teck Cominco TCK 10.54 22.00

Shipping

DryShips DRYS 7.42 60.00
Navios Maritime NM 4.13 9.00
Safe Bulkers SB 4.26 16.00
Paragon Shipping PRGN 3.24 8.00

Six Months Results

May 1 to October 30, 2009

Strong Buys Posted 10 100%
Number Profitable 9 90%
Price Doubled or more 2 20%
Average Price Increase 10 74%
S P 500 Price Increase 118%

Strong Buys

Posted 4/2/2009

Oil

Name Ticker Price Target
Swift Energy SFY 7.46 26.00
Precision Drilling PDS 2.86 10.00
Gulfport Energy GPOR 2.35 5.00

Mining

Anglo American AAUK 8.79 57.00
Taseko Mines TGB 1.25 7.00
Teck Cominco TCK 6.16 22.00

Shipping

DryShips DRYS 5.05 22.00
Navios Maritime NM 2.30 9.00
Safe Bulkers SB 3.17 16.00
Paragon Shipping PRGN 3.34 8.00

Six Months Results

April 2 to September 30, 2009

Strong Buys Posted 10 100%
Number Profitable 10 100%
Price Doubled or more 8 80%
Average Price Increase 10 155%
S P 500 Price Increase 126%

Strong Buys

Posted 3/1/2009

Oil

Name Ticker Price Target
McMoran Exploration MMR 4.59 22.00
Precision Drilling PDS 2.76 14.00
Berry Petrol BRY 6.65 23.00

Mining

Anglo American AAUK 7.07 44.00
Taseko Mines TGB .85 2.00
Coeur D'Alene CDE .76 1.40

Shipping

DryShips DRYS 3.47 28.00
Navios Maritime NM 2.11 12.00
Safe Bulkers SB 3.80 22.00

Six Months Results

March 1 to August 31, 2009

Strong Buys Posted 9 100%
Number Profitable 9 100%
Price Doubled or more 5 56%
Average Price Increase 9 139%
S P 500 Price Increase 145%
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